Predicted scoreToss-up
Duke
28.7
Syracuse
31.6
Syracuse win probability: 57%
Margin (Syracuse − Duke): 2.9 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 60.4 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Duke 38 – Syracuse 3 (margin error 37.9, total error 19.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 28 | 0.58% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.55% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.