2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 4:00 PM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium

UCF @ Kansas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

UCF

24.0

Kansas State

27.3

Kansas State win probability: 58%

Margin (Kansas State − UCF): 3.3 (80% range -17 to 24)

Total: 51.3 (80% range 28 to 76)

Actual: UCF 20 – Kansas State 34 (margin error 10.7, total error 2.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.