2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 2:30 AM · Reser Stadium
Houston @ Oregon State
Predicted scoreLean
Houston
33.6
Oregon State
25.7
Oregon State win probability: 32%
Margin (Oregon State − Houston): -7.9 (80% range -29 to 14)
Total: 59.2 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Houston 27 – Oregon State 24 (margin error 4.9, total error 8.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.