2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 1:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium

TCU @ Arizona State

Predicted scoreToss-up

TCU

28.8

Arizona State

27.3

Arizona State win probability: 47%

Margin (Arizona State − TCU): -1.5 (80% range -22 to 19)

Total: 56.1 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: TCU 24 – Arizona State 27 (margin error 4.5, total error 5.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.