2025 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2025, 3:59 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

Fresno State @ Hawai'i

Predicted scoreLean

Fresno State

30.1

Hawai'i

23.8

Hawai'i win probability: 35%

Margin (Hawai'i − Fresno State): -6.3 (80% range -27 to 14)

Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Fresno State 23 – Hawai'i 21 (margin error 4.3, total error 9.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.