2025 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2025, 2:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium

California @ San Diego State

Predicted scoreLean

California

28.2

San Diego State

23.7

San Diego State win probability: 39%

Margin (San Diego State − California): -4.5 (80% range -25 to 15)

Total: 52.0 (80% range 29 to 76)

Actual: California 0 – San Diego State 34 (margin error 38.5, total error 18.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.