2025 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2025, 1:30 AM · Canvas Stadium
UTSA @ Colorado State
Predicted scoreToss-up
UTSA
27.8
Colorado State
26.7
Colorado State win probability: 47%
Margin (Colorado State − UTSA): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UTSA 17 – Colorado State 16 (margin error 0.1, total error 21.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.