2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 11:30 PM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
BYU @ East Carolina
Predicted scoreLikely
BYU
28.8
East Carolina
20.3
East Carolina win probability: 30%
Margin (East Carolina − BYU): -8.5 (80% range -28 to 11)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: BYU 34 – East Carolina 13 (margin error 12.5, total error 2.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.