2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 11:30 PM · FirstBank Stadium
Georgia State @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreConfident
Georgia State
16.4
Vanderbilt
38.4
Vanderbilt win probability: 92%
Margin (Vanderbilt − Georgia State): 22.0 (80% range 1 to 42)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Georgia State 21 – Vanderbilt 70 (margin error 27.0, total error 36.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.72% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.