2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 11:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Marshall @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreLean

Marshall

31.4

Middle Tennessee

25.4

Middle Tennessee win probability: 36%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Marshall): -6.0 (80% range -27 to 14)

Total: 56.8 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Marshall 42 – Middle Tennessee 28 (margin error 8.0, total error 13.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.