2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM · Notre Dame Stadium
Purdue @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreConfident
Purdue
15.0
Notre Dame
38.2
Notre Dame win probability: 93%
Margin (Notre Dame − Purdue): 23.2 (80% range 3 to 44)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: Purdue 30 – Notre Dame 56 (margin error 2.8, total error 32.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.85% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.