2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium

Kent State @ Florida State

Predicted scoreConfident

Kent State

10.9

Florida State

43.1

Florida State win probability: 98%

Margin (Florida State − Kent State): 32.3 (80% range 11 to 53)

Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: Kent State 10 – Florida State 66 (margin error 23.7, total error 22.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.