2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 7:00 PM · Autzen Stadium
Oregon State @ Oregon
Predicted scoreConfident
Oregon State
15.6
Oregon
39.4
Oregon win probability: 93%
Margin (Oregon − Oregon State): 23.8 (80% range 3 to 45)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Oregon State 7 – Oregon 41 (margin error 10.2, total error 7.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.91% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.