2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 4:00 PM · Yager Stadium
UNLV @ Miami (OH)
Predicted scoreToss-up
UNLV
27.4
Miami (OH)
24.6
Miami (OH) win probability: 43%
Margin (Miami (OH) − UNLV): -2.8 (80% range -23 to 17)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: UNLV 41 – Miami (OH) 38 (margin error 0.2, total error 27.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.