2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 4:00 PM · Michie Stadium
North Texas @ Army
Predicted scoreLean
North Texas
26.9
Army
32.6
Army win probability: 64%
Margin (Army − North Texas): 5.7 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 59.5 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: North Texas 45 – Army 38 (margin error 12.7, total error 23.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.