2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 4:00 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Bowling Green @ Louisville

Predicted scoreConfident

Bowling Green

17.0

Louisville

35.8

Louisville win probability: 88%

Margin (Louisville − Bowling Green): 18.9 (80% range -1 to 39)

Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Bowling Green 17 – Louisville 40 (margin error 4.1, total error 4.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.