2025 Week 4 · Sep 19, 2025, 11:30 PM · Boone Pickens Stadium

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State

Predicted scoreLikely

Tulsa

22.5

Oklahoma State

36.0

Oklahoma State win probability: 79%

Margin (Oklahoma State − Tulsa): 13.6 (80% range -7 to 35)

Total: 58.5 (80% range 34 to 84)

Actual: Tulsa 19 – Oklahoma State 12 (margin error 20.6, total error 27.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.