2025 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2025, 2:30 AM · California Memorial Stadium

Minnesota @ California

Predicted scoreLean

Minnesota

28.8

California

21.4

California win probability: 32%

Margin (California − Minnesota): -7.4 (80% range -28 to 13)

Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 73)

Actual: Minnesota 14 – California 27 (margin error 20.4, total error 9.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.