Predicted scoreToss-up
Duke
24.9
Tulane
28.8
Tulane win probability: 60%
Margin (Tulane − Duke): 3.9 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Duke 27 – Tulane 34 (margin error 3.1, total error 7.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.