Predicted scoreConfident
Navy
37.1
Tulsa
17.8
Tulsa win probability: 11%
Margin (Tulsa − Navy): -19.4 (80% range -41 to 0)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Navy 42 – Tulsa 23 (margin error 0.4, total error 10.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.73% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 35 | 14 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.