2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 11:30 PM · Kinnick Stadium
Massachusetts @ Iowa
Predicted scoreConfident
Massachusetts
11.0
Iowa
44.4
Iowa win probability: 98%
Margin (Iowa − Massachusetts): 33.4 (80% range 13 to 55)
Total: 55.4 (80% range 33 to 79)
Actual: Massachusetts 7 – Iowa 47 (margin error 6.6, total error 1.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 42 | 1.00% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.95% |
| 7 | 45 | 0.92% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.90% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.88% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.