2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 11:30 PM · Joe Aillet Stadium

New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech

Predicted scoreLikely

New Mexico State

20.5

Louisiana Tech

30.8

Louisiana Tech win probability: 74%

Margin (Louisiana Tech − New Mexico State): 10.3 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 51.4 (80% range 29 to 75)

Actual: New Mexico State 14 – Louisiana Tech 49 (margin error 24.7, total error 11.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.