2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 8:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Iowa State @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreConfident

Iowa State

40.8

Arkansas State

17.9

Arkansas State win probability: 8%

Margin (Arkansas State − Iowa State): -22.9 (80% range -45 to -2)

Total: 58.7 (80% range 35 to 83)

Actual: Iowa State 24 – Arkansas State 16 (margin error 14.9, total error 18.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.