2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 2:00 AM · Rose Bowl
New Mexico @ UCLA
Predicted scoreLikely
New Mexico
24.6
UCLA
34.8
UCLA win probability: 74%
Margin (UCLA − New Mexico): 10.2 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 59.4 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: New Mexico 35 – UCLA 10 (margin error 35.2, total error 14.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.58% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.58% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.