Predicted scoreToss-up
UCLA
28.3
UNLV
26.6
UNLV win probability: 46%
Margin (UNLV − UCLA): -1.7 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: UCLA 23 – UNLV 30 (margin error 8.7, total error 1.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.