2025 Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025, 11:00 PM · Center Parc Stadium
Memphis @ Georgia State
Predicted scoreLikely
Memphis
32.6
Georgia State
22.4
Georgia State win probability: 27%
Margin (Georgia State − Memphis): -10.2 (80% range -31 to 10)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Memphis 38 – Georgia State 16 (margin error 11.8, total error 1.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.