2025 Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025, 11:00 PM · Jerry Richardson Stadium

North Carolina @ Charlotte

Predicted scoreLikely

North Carolina

34.4

Charlotte

20.7

Charlotte win probability: 20%

Margin (Charlotte − North Carolina): -13.6 (80% range -35 to 7)

Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: North Carolina 20 – Charlotte 3 (margin error 3.4, total error 32.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.