Predicted scoreToss-up
Illinois
26.4
Duke
28.3
Duke win probability: 55%
Margin (Duke − Illinois): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Illinois 45 – Duke 19 (margin error 27.9, total error 9.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.