2025 Week 2 · Sep 5, 2025, 11:00 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

James Madison @ Louisville

Predicted scoreLikely

James Madison

23.4

Louisville

33.9

Louisville win probability: 74%

Margin (Louisville − James Madison): 10.5 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 57.4 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: James Madison 14 – Louisville 28 (margin error 3.5, total error 15.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.