2025 Week 1 · Aug 31, 2025, 11:30 PM · Hard Rock Stadium
Notre Dame @ Miami
Predicted scoreLean
Notre Dame
30.0
Miami
25.7
Miami win probability: 40%
Margin (Miami − Notre Dame): -4.3 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 33 to 80)
Actual: Notre Dame 24 – Miami 27 (margin error 7.3, total error 4.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.