2025 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025, 11:45 PM · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Georgia State @ Ole Miss

Predicted scoreConfident

Georgia State

13.1

Ole Miss

41.5

Ole Miss win probability: 96%

Margin (Ole Miss − Georgia State): 28.4 (80% range 7 to 49)

Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Georgia State 7 – Ole Miss 63 (margin error 27.6, total error 15.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.