2025 Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025, 9:30 PM · Raymond James Stadium

Boise State @ South Florida

Predicted scoreLean

Boise State

31.4

South Florida

24.9

South Florida win probability: 34%

Margin (South Florida − Boise State): -6.5 (80% range -27 to 14)

Total: 56.3 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Boise State 7 – South Florida 34 (margin error 33.5, total error 15.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.