2025 Week 1 · Aug 23, 2025, 4:00 PM · Aviva Stadium (neutral site)

Iowa State @ Kansas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Iowa State

26.5

Kansas State

26.6

Kansas State win probability: 50%

Margin (Kansas State − Iowa State): 0.1 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 53.1 (80% range 30 to 78)

Actual: Iowa State 24 – Kansas State 21 (margin error 3.1, total error 8.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.