2023 Postseason · Dec 29, 2023, 8:30 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Memphis @ Iowa State

Predicted scoreLikely

Memphis

21.0

Iowa State

29.8

Iowa State win probability: 71%

Margin (Iowa State − Memphis): 8.7 (80% range -11 to 28)

Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Memphis 36 – Iowa State 26 (margin error 18.7, total error 11.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.