2023 Postseason · Dec 29, 2023, 7:00 PM · Sun Bowl (neutral site)

Oregon State @ Notre Dame

Predicted scoreToss-up

Oregon State

23.9

Notre Dame

24.7

Notre Dame win probability: 52%

Margin (Notre Dame − Oregon State): 0.8 (80% range -19 to 21)

Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Oregon State 8 – Notre Dame 40 (margin error 31.2, total error 0.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.