2023 Postseason · Dec 28, 2023, 4:00 PM · Fenway Park (neutral site)

SMU @ Boston College

Predicted scoreLikely

SMU

35.8

Boston College

25.8

Boston College win probability: 28%

Margin (Boston College − SMU): -10.0 (80% range -31 to 11)

Total: 61.6 (80% range 37 to 89)

Actual: SMU 14 – Boston College 23 (margin error 19.0, total error 24.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.