2023 Postseason · Dec 27, 2023, 10:30 PM · Bank of America Stadium (neutral site)

North Carolina @ West Virginia

Predicted scoreToss-up

North Carolina

32.1

West Virginia

32.8

West Virginia win probability: 52%

Margin (West Virginia − North Carolina): 0.8 (80% range -21 to 21)

Total: 64.9 (80% range 40 to 92)

Actual: North Carolina 10 – West Virginia 30 (margin error 19.2, total error 24.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.