2023 Postseason · Dec 27, 2023, 2:00 AM · Chase Field (neutral site)

Kansas @ UNLV

Predicted scoreLikely

Kansas

36.1

UNLV

25.6

UNLV win probability: 27%

Margin (UNLV − Kansas): -10.4 (80% range -32 to 11)

Total: 61.7 (80% range 37 to 87)

Actual: Kansas 49 – UNLV 36 (margin error 2.6, total error 23.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.