2023 Postseason · Dec 26, 2023, 10:30 PM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium (neutral site)

Texas State @ Rice

Predicted scoreToss-up

Texas State

26.4

Rice

22.7

Rice win probability: 41%

Margin (Rice − Texas State): -3.8 (80% range -24 to 17)

Total: 49.1 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Texas State 45 – Rice 21 (margin error 20.2, total error 16.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.