2023 Postseason · Dec 23, 2023, 8:30 PM · Albertsons Stadium (neutral site)

Georgia State @ Utah State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Georgia State

27.6

Utah State

24.0

Utah State win probability: 41%

Margin (Utah State − Georgia State): -3.6 (80% range -24 to 17)

Total: 51.6 (80% range 29 to 76)

Actual: Georgia State 45 – Utah State 22 (margin error 19.4, total error 15.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.