2023 Postseason · Dec 23, 2023, 8:30 PM · Amon G. Carter Stadium (neutral site)

James Madison @ Air Force

Predicted scoreToss-up

James Madison

25.8

Air Force

27.6

Air Force win probability: 55%

Margin (Air Force − James Madison): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 22)

Total: 53.4 (80% range 30 to 78)

Actual: James Madison 21 – Air Force 31 (margin error 8.1, total error 1.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.