2023 Postseason · Dec 23, 2023, 5:00 PM · Cramton Bowl (neutral site)

Arkansas State @ Northern Illinois

Predicted scoreToss-up

Arkansas State

32.2

Northern Illinois

33.4

Northern Illinois win probability: 53%

Margin (Northern Illinois − Arkansas State): 1.2 (80% range -21 to 24)

Total: 65.6 (80% range 40 to 93)

Actual: Arkansas State 19 – Northern Illinois 21 (margin error 0.8, total error 25.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.