2023 Postseason · Dec 16, 2023, 10:45 PM · University Stadium (NM) (neutral site)

New Mexico State @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreLikely

New Mexico State

22.6

Fresno State

36.7

Fresno State win probability: 80%

Margin (Fresno State − New Mexico State): 14.1 (80% range -7 to 35)

Total: 59.3 (80% range 35 to 85)

Actual: New Mexico State 10 – Fresno State 37 (margin error 12.9, total error 12.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.