2023 Postseason · Dec 16, 2023, 7:15 PM · Caesars Superdome (neutral site)

Jacksonville State @ Louisiana

Predicted scoreToss-up

Jacksonville State

27.2

Louisiana

25.8

Louisiana win probability: 47%

Margin (Louisiana − Jacksonville State): -1.4 (80% range -24 to 21)

Total: 53.0 (80% range 33 to 75)

Actual: Jacksonville State 34 – Louisiana 31 (margin error 1.6, total error 12.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.