2023 Week 13 · Nov 26, 2023, 3:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium

Fresno State @ San Diego State

Predicted scoreLean

Fresno State

29.8

San Diego State

22.1

San Diego State win probability: 31%

Margin (San Diego State − Fresno State): -7.7 (80% range -28 to 13)

Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Fresno State 18 – San Diego State 33 (margin error 22.7, total error 1.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.