2023 Week 13 · Nov 26, 2023, 12:00 AM · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Florida State @ Florida

Predicted scoreLean

Florida State

33.2

Florida

27.6

Florida win probability: 37%

Margin (Florida − Florida State): -5.5 (80% range -27 to 15)

Total: 60.8 (80% range 37 to 87)

Actual: Florida State 24 – Florida 15 (margin error 3.5, total error 21.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.