2023 Week 13 · Nov 26, 2023, 12:00 AM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

South Alabama @ Texas State

Predicted scoreLikely

South Alabama

30.2

Texas State

21.0

Texas State win probability: 28%

Margin (Texas State − South Alabama): -9.2 (80% range -29 to 11)

Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: South Alabama 44 – Texas State 52 (margin error 17.2, total error 44.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.