2023 Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023, 8:30 PM · Joan C. Edwards Stadium

Arkansas State @ Marshall

Predicted scoreLean

Arkansas State

24.1

Marshall

30.0

Marshall win probability: 64%

Margin (Marshall − Arkansas State): 5.9 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Arkansas State 21 – Marshall 35 (margin error 8.1, total error 1.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.