Predicted scoreLikely
Alabama
29.5
Auburn
19.5
Auburn win probability: 26%
Margin (Auburn − Alabama): -9.9 (80% range -30 to 10)
Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Alabama 27 – Auburn 24 (margin error 6.9, total error 2.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.