Predicted scoreLikely
Navy
16.8
SMU
29.6
SMU win probability: 80%
Margin (SMU − Navy): 12.7 (80% range -7 to 32)
Total: 46.4 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Navy 14 – SMU 59 (margin error 32.3, total error 26.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.89% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.